Category Economics

Peak oil swept under the carpet?

Sounds like the U.S. has been play­ing silly bug­gers with oil pro­duc­tion fore­casts.

From a senior fig­ure at the Inter­na­tional Energy Agency, who has now left but is unwill­ing to give his name:

We have [already] entered the ‘peak oil’ zone. I think that the situ­ation is really bad.

It’s worth listen­ing to the audio in the above linked art­icle too.

Better late than never?

Labour (UK) have had twelve years to do this:

A fierce debate within the gov­ern­ment on how to tackle entrenched wealth inequal­ity … is to be ignited by a report ordered by Har­riet Har­man, the Labour deputy leader and the min­is­ter respons­ible for equalities.

The Billion Dollar Gram

Infographic com­par­ing rel­at­ive spend­ing of vari­ous multi-billion-dollar budgets. Keep it in mind next time you con­sider vot­ing for any of the major polit­ical entit­ies that have helped cre­ate such a world.

(via Dar­ing Fire­ball)

On Rupert Murdoch’s plan to charge for news websites

Andrew Clark writ­ing for The Guard­ian: “Rupert Mur­doch said qual­ity journ­al­ism is not cheap and so he intends to charge for all his web­sites,” includ­ing the Times, The Sun and the News of the World.

Two com­ments.

  1. The Sun and News of the World are not qual­ity journ­al­ism. They’re tabloids.
  2. A pre­dic­tion: Murdoch’s plan to charge for gen­eral news on the web will fail.

Think I need to move to Costa Rica

Costa Rica is the green­est and hap­pi­est coun­try in the world, accord­ing to a new list that ranks nations by com­bin­ing meas­ures of their eco­lo­gical foot­print with the hap­pi­ness of their cit­izens.1

Photo of beach in Costa Rica

And, sur­prise sur­prise, unlike places like Bri­tain and the U.S. (which fig­ure low on the index) Costa Rica is run by left-wingers not self-serving right-wingers, it has a strong wel­fare state, it uses pro­por­tional rep­res­ent­a­tion to elect its politi­cian, not first past the post, and as opposed to send­ing its youth off to die in illegal wars for the bene­fit of a wealthy elite Costa Rica abol­ished its army back in 1948.

But you keep vot­ing for right-wing war-mongering plonkers if that makes you feel bet­ter…2

HPI report on Costa Rica:

With the highest levels of repor­ted life sat­is­fac­tion, and the highest happy life years – Costa Rica stands out in the HPI even before con­sid­er­ing its eco­lo­gical foot­print. It has the fifth-lowest human poverty index in the devel­op­ing world, and the pro­por­tion of people liv­ing on less than $2-a-day is lower than in Romania – an EU mem­ber. What makes these res­ults even more remark­able is that it achieves this with a quarter of the foot­print of the USA. This is no mat­ter of chance. Costa Rica, a haven of demo­cracy and peace in tur­bu­lent Cent­ral Amer­ica, has taken very delib­er­ate steps to reduce its envir­on­mental impact. Unique in the world for hav­ing com­bined its min­is­tries of energy and the envir­on­ment back in the 1970s, a stag­ger­ing 99 per cent of its energy comes from renew­able sources. In 1997, a car­bon tax was intro­duced on emis­sions – with the funds gained being used to pay indi­gen­ous com­munit­ies to pro­tect their sur­round­ing forests. Defor­est­a­tion has been reversed, and forests cover twice as much land as 20 years ago. In 2007, the Costa Rican Gov­ern­ment declared that it inten­ded to become car­bon neut­ral by 2021. As a res­ult of these huge steps, Costa Rica has risen up the ranks of Yale University’s Envir­on­mental Per­form­ance Indic­ator, from 15th in the world in 2006 to 5th in 2008, the highest pos­i­tion out­side Europe. Pro­fessor Mari­ano Rojas, a Costa Rican eco­nom­ist at the Latin Amer­ican Fac­ulty of Social Sci­ences in Mex­ico, is unsur­prised by his country’s per­form­ance and adds a few fur­ther explanations:
The abol­i­tion of the country’s army in 1949, free­ing up gov­ern­ment money to spend on social programmes.
Solid social net­works of friends, fam­il­ies and neigh­bour­hoods, allowed by a sens­ible work-life balance.
Rich nat­ural capital.
Equal treat­ment of women.
Strong polit­ical participation.
Costa Rica is not heaven. Its wel­fare state, one of the most developed out­side Scand­inavia, must deal with an eco­nomic sys­tem that pro­duces high levels of inequal­ity, and almost 10 per cent of the pop­u­la­tion live on under $2-a-day. Clean water and adult lit­er­acy are almost uni­ver­sal, but not quite. And, whilst we wait with bated breath to see if Costa Rica really does move towards being car­bon neut­ral in forth­com­ing HPIs, its cur­rent eco­lo­gical foot­print is still eight per cent above the one-planet liv­ing threshold.

With the highest levels of repor­ted life sat­is­fac­tion, and the highest happy life years – Costa Rica stands out in the HPI even before con­sid­er­ing its eco­lo­gical foot­print. It has the fifth-lowest human poverty index in the devel­op­ing world, and the pro­por­tion of people liv­ing on less than $2-a-day is lower than in Romania – an EU mem­ber. What makes these res­ults even more remark­able is that it achieves this with a quarter of the foot­print of the USA. This is no mat­ter of chance. Costa Rica, a haven of demo­cracy and peace in tur­bu­lent Cent­ral Amer­ica, has taken very delib­er­ate steps to reduce its envir­on­mental impact. Unique in the world for hav­ing com­bined its min­is­tries of energy and the envir­on­ment back in the 1970s, a stag­ger­ing 99 per cent of its energy comes from renew­able sources. In 1997, a car­bon tax was intro­duced on emis­sions – with the funds gained being used to pay indi­gen­ous com­munit­ies to pro­tect their sur­round­ing forests. Defor­est­a­tion has been reversed, and forests cover twice as much land as 20 years ago. In 2007, the Costa Rican Gov­ern­ment declared that it inten­ded to become car­bon neut­ral by 2021. As a res­ult of these huge steps, Costa Rica has risen up the ranks of Yale University’s Envir­on­mental Per­form­ance Indic­ator, from 15th in the world in 2006 to 5th in 2008, the highest pos­i­tion out­side Europe. Pro­fessor Mari­ano Rojas, a Costa Rican eco­nom­ist at the Latin Amer­ican Fac­ulty of Social Sci­ences in Mex­ico, is unsur­prised by his country’s per­form­ance and adds a few fur­ther explanations:

  • The abol­i­tion of the country’s army in 1949, free­ing up gov­ern­ment money to spend on social programmes.
  • Solid social net­works of friends, fam­il­ies and neigh­bour­hoods, allowed by a sens­ible work-life balance.
  • Rich nat­ural capital.
  • Equal treat­ment of women.
  • Strong polit­ical participation.

Costa Rica is not heaven. Its wel­fare state, one of the most developed out­side Scand­inavia, must deal with an eco­nomic sys­tem that pro­duces high levels of inequal­ity, and almost 10 per cent of the pop­u­la­tion live on under $2-a-day. Clean water and adult lit­er­acy are almost uni­ver­sal, but not quite. And, whilst we wait with bated breath to see if Costa Rica really does move towards being car­bon neut­ral in forth­com­ing HPIs, its cur­rent eco­lo­gical foot­print is still eight per cent above the one-planet liv­ing threshold.

Notes:
  1. Ash­ley Seager report­ing for The Guard­ian []
  2. And, yes, Britain’s New Labour and the U.S.‘s Demo­crats are right-wing []

You gotta love the Norwegians

Landon Thomas Jr. in the New York Times:

Nor­way is … a major oil exporter [and] Even though prices have sharply declined, the gov­ern­ment is not par­tic­u­larly wor­ried. That is because Nor­way avoided the usual trap that plagues many energy-rich countries.

Instead of spend­ing its riches lav­ishly, it passed legis­la­tion ensur­ing that oil rev­enue went straight into its sov­er­eign wealth fund, state money that is used to make invest­ments around the world. Now its sov­er­eign wealth fund is close to being the largest in the world …

Norway’s rel­at­ive frugal­ity stands in stark con­trast to Bri­tain, which spent most of its North Sea oil rev­enue — and more — dur­ing the boom years. Gov­ern­ment spend­ing rose to 47 per­cent of G.D.P., from 42 per­cent in 2003. By com­par­ison, pub­lic spend­ing in Nor­way fell to 40 per­cent from 48 per­cent of G.D.P.

The U.S. and the U.K. have no sense of guilt,” said Anders Aslund, an expert on Scand­inavia at the Peterson Insti­tute for Inter­na­tional Eco­nom­ics in Washington.

Eirik Wekre, an eco­nom­ist … describes Nor­we­gi­ans’ feel­ings about debt this way: “We can­not spend this money now; it would be steal­ing from future generations.”

The evil legacy of Tony Blair, Gordon Brown and New Labour

Two things stand out as New Labour’s leg­acy: war of aggres­sion (the “supreme” war crime) and the worst inequal­ity of incomes since records began (another supreme crime con­sid­er­ing the dam­age it inflicts on every­body).

Tony Blair, Gor­don Brown and their con­spir­at­ors are little more than wolves in sheep’s cloth­ing and they’ve had much of the Labour Party and its sup­port­ers hood­winked for all these years.

Polly Toyn­bee — one of the hood­winked—may stamp her feet now but all she ends up doing is lay­ing bare how dys­func­tional Britain’s quasi-democracy is.

Because the UK is still stuck in the dark ages of plur­al­ity vot­ing (and New Labour broke its mani­festo pledge of elect­oral reform) con­trol of Bri­tain will simply pass from one wolf to another.

Why the rules have changed on income equality

What I find so great about the find­ings in The Spirit Level is that they com­pletely change the rules of the debate on income equality.

No longer does one need rely on grounds of fair­ness and justice, which fall on the deaf ears of a world suc­cumbed to the fal­la­cies of social Dar­win­ism, or “sur­vival of the fit­test,” and the idea of “wealth creators.”

Now, given the deluge of data, it’s a prac­tical ques­tion of whether you want to live in a soci­ety with low rates of social prob­lems or high rates of social prob­lems. A no-brainer as they say.

The Spirit Level has opened my eyes to a couple of things too. One is the import­ance of poor coun­tries to get richer. Wealth has a huge role to play in rais­ing liv­ing stand­ards in poor coun­tries. I used to think devel­op­ing coun­tries had some­thing we didn’t and that they would lose this some­thing as they became richer. What I now real­ise is that it’s not wealth that takes this some­thing away but inequality.

The other thing it’s opened my eyes to is the dif­fer­ent way in which some coun­tries have acheived greater income equal­ity. Sweden, for example, gets its greater equal­ity through redis­tri­bu­tion, through taxes and bene­fits, and pub­lic ser­vices provided by a big state. In con­trast, Japan has a greater equal­ity of incomes before redis­tri­bu­tion. Dif­fer­ences in Japan­ese earn­ings are smal­ler even before taxes and bene­fits. Check out the Equal­ity Trust’s ‘Rem­ed­ies’ webpage for more.

Shattering the myth of egalitarianism in Australia (and NZ)

Boris Frankel in Melbourne’s The Age:

Here is some good news. Just as the Great Depres­sion inspired sig­ni­fic­ant social reforms, so the cur­rent “great world reces­sion” is pro­du­cing a spate of over­due reform pro­pos­als. Some of these pro­pos­als have emerged in Bri­tain, one of the most unequal soci­et­ies in the developed world. While Aus­tralia ranks as the fourth most unequal developed soci­ety after the US, Por­tugal and Bri­tain, there is wide­spread delu­sion among Aus­trali­ans that we are an egal­it­arian soci­ety. By con­trast, 80 per cent of people in Brit­ish sur­veys believe that class divi­sion — or birth not worth — determ­ines a child’s life chances.

I think there’s prob­ably wide­spread delu­sion among New Zeal­anders too when it comes to see­ing their soci­ety as egal­it­arian. It used to be for sure, but since the Labour and National party usered in free-market fun­da­ment­al­ism in the 80s New Zea­l­and, too, has become one of the most unequal developed soci­et­ies in the world. One more reason not to vote for Labour or National.

External links:

Nobody does money like New Labour

Mar­ina Hyde on New Labour’s rela­tion­ship with money:

It is dif­fi­cult to think of a more per­fect test­a­ment to New Labour’s intel­lec­tual shal­lows. On the eve of the most deadly ser­i­ous budget in dec­ades, Gor­don Brown posts a You­Tube video in which he announces he has sched­uled some inquiry — pre-empting debate about MPs’ ­expenses. It might as well have been cap­tioned “I can haz bathplug?”.

MPs’ expenses are a cross-party blight, of course. But when his­tor­i­ans come to assess this edi­fy­ing period for our demo­cracy, they may well remark upon what a pity it was that cer­tain mem­bers who were so fas­ti­di­ous about their per­sonal out­go­ings were so prof­lig­ate and laissez-faire with the pub­lic purse. Olympic over­spends, a couple of wars – they waved through the lot while per­us­ing the John Lewis elec­tric­als catalogue.

New Labour just looked like … well, small-time crooks is the expres­sion … And in the end, it’s the small­ness of these people that you can’t get away from.